Look Down That Lonesome Road to Europe: Why In The World Are We On It?

by Hal Gershowitz and Stephen Porter on May 13, 2012

 

We borrow, of course, from the 1927 lyrics by Nathaniel Shilkret and Gene Austin,  “Look down, Look down, that Lonesome Road, before you travel on.”  Could anyone offer better advice to the United States of America today?  We think not. We need to take a collective, long look down the lonesome road on which we currently are before we continue on, because soon it becomes a one-way street.  The signposts might be in Greek, or Spanish, or French, or Italian or Portuguese, or the king’s English, but they all tell us the same thing – runaway entitlements, huge deficits, ever-mounting debt all lead to the same place: declining growth, an endlessly fragile economy, high unemployment and underemployment, a perpetually insecure workforce and a young generation that, for the first time in our history, has little certainty of doing better than their parents.  Why in the world would we choose to travel down such a road?

It was precisely this week two years ago that we first warned that Greece was the proverbial canary in the coal mine, and that it was a precursor to what we might expect when other countries, including our own, lived on perpetual deficits and habituated themselves to debt greater than the size of their entire economies.  Many liberal economists, at the time, scoffed at the notion that the Eurozone was problematic or that the problems in Greece envisaged anything threatening to the larger and stronger countries of Europe. Well, the first signpost on the lonely road about which we write may have been in Greek, but since then we have passed similar road signs in Italian, French, Spanish, Dutch, Portuguese, and, yes, English — both of the royal tongue and as well as good old Yankee English.

Let’s deal with the irresponsible levels of debt we and the other so-called advanced nations of the industrialized world are carrying. Leading economists have produced impressive work that shows that public debt in excess of 90% of a nation’s GDP invariably leads to economic contraction. Why would that surprise anyone?  Such debt, especially when it is growing, creates ever-mounting debt-service costs that erode national treasuries.  And as debt mounts to levels greater than the economies that must support it, interest costs, sooner or later, increase, often precipitously.  Funds to provide appropriate and needed government services are sacrificed and market capital to finance private sector growth (from which government mines its tax revenue) is crowded out by gluttonous government appetite for those same funds, and a crippling vicious cycle soon begins spiraling in the wings.  That’s where much of the industrialized world now finds itself including, perhaps, America.

Just two months ago, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned that if the United States stays on its current course, economic growth would begin to contract as early as next year.  The CBO analysis only considers what it refers to as “public debt”, that is, debt in the form of instruments held by the public.  CBO estimates that such public debt will reach 77% of GDP next year, but that really understates the problem because it doesn’t count gross debt, which includes the money our government owes to the Social Security Trust Fund (and other government agencies).  The government vacuums the social security taxes it collects from the so-called trust fund as fast as it comes in and transfers it into general revenues in order to pay its bills.  The missing trust fund money is then replaced with Special Issue Treasury Notes, which are not counted as public debt.  But it is debt and if it were also counted, as it should be, our debt would be 106% of GDP instead of 77% of GDP.

The well-respected International Institute for Management Development (IMD) based in Lausanne, Switzerland defines bearable or sustainable debt as debt that is no more than 60% of GDP.  Of thirty-two nations analyzed, we rank 25th with only Ireland, Portugal, Iceland, Italy Greece and Japan in worse shape.

America is desperate for vibrant and sustainable economic growth, yet the Obama Administration seems to have priorities that are antithetical to a strong pro-growth agenda. Obama is not the first president to have flirted with expanding the government’s role in planning and managing the economy. So-called progressives have been infatuated with the European leftist model for decades. It is a road well traveled and a road on which we don’t want to be. We, like the Europeans, have bet on high debt and fast printing to fund a wholly ill-advised and unrealistic national agenda.  The jury is no longer out on whether or not it is a good bet.  It isn’t. Let’s take a closer look at the Euroroad we’re traveling.

Unemployment along the Euroroad is at a 15-Year High. The jobless rate in the 17-nation euro area is now hovering at about 11.0 percent, with Spain in the worst shape with nearly 25% of the work force out of work. The UK has slipped into recession, as has Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, Denmark, Czech Republic along with Greece, and France may well be next. The EU has pumped 1.3 trillion dollars into the debt-ridden nations of Europe, yet interest rates, after a brief pause, are, once again, soaring in France, Italy, Spain and, of course, Greece. Manufacturing in most of the euro-area is contracting well beyond what was projected only a month ago, and, particularly troubling, unemployment in Germany, the region’s largest economy, has unexpectedly ticked up.

Meanwhile, voters in Europe’s troubled countries are not in the mood to cooperate with fiscal reformers.  French voters have just given the boot to French President Nicolas Sarkozy in favor of Socialist Francois Hollandem who wants to boost government spending; and in Greece voters chose, last week, two parties that want to scrap the rather extraordinary bailout deal which resulted in a 75% haircut for lenders.  The voters didn’t like the belt tightening that was part of the deal.

The entire EuroZone is sputtering badly.  An index of manufacturing in the EuroZone fell from 47.7 in March to 45.9 in April, which is the lowest it has been in almost three years. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The report also indicated that job losses at factories increased and that there was “weak” demand from both domestic and export customers.

Increased joblessness along with a simultaneous need for reduced spending has created a Hobson’s Choice dilemma throughout Europe. Out-of-control debt, chronic deficits and burgeoning public payrolls have to be addressed, and that means varying degrees of long overdue austerity is required. Politicians, obviously mindful of angry voters, still have to figure out how to boost economic growth while imposing austerity measures at the same time. Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, has called for a “growth compact” to offset the impact of new mandatory, belt-tightening fiscal rules. Buyers of sovereign debt are, understandably, getting very nervous as evidenced by the sharp increases in EuroZone borrowing costs.

For the time being, interest rates are still very low in the United States as we continue to maintain our coveted position as the nation in the least worst shape.  We think, however, the odds are pretty strong that we might see another round of so-called quantitative easing by the Fed (which acts to depress interest rates) as our own economy, once again, shows signs of stalling.  Our economy, last month, added far fewer new jobs (115,000) than was anticipated and far less than the number required to simply accommodate those men and women who are entering the job market each month. Simultaneously, our economic woes are being compounded by the current decline in what the Bureau of Labor Statistics refers to as the civilian labor force participation rate, which has dropped to 63.6 percent of the eligible civilian work force. To put this decline in perspective, this means that 2,693,000 workers have left the labor force in the past twelve months. Today, over 5 million workers have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. Ironically, as the percent of people who are too discouraged to seek employment increases, the unemployment rate decreases (currently 8.1%) as we only count as unemployed those who are actively seeking work.

As we have written so frequently, we believe economic growth should be the top priority of the Obama Administration.  Indeed, perhaps, it should be the only priority right now. It is not, however, the top priority. In fact, it seems to be of no priority at all.  We are borrowing and printing money at an alarming rate, issuing thousands of pages of new regulations and demonizing those who pay the lion’s share of the taxes in America.  Europe is a case-study-in-progress of where such policies lead.  The President and his left-leaning acolytes do not see the road we are on as the Lonesome Road to Europe, but rather, it seems, as the Yellow Brick Road to the Emerald City.  They are wrong and we must change course.

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Creeping Union Socialism – The Effort to Recall Wisconsin’s Governor

by Hal Gershowitz and Stephen Porter on May 6, 2012

With all of the focus on the 2012 presidential elections, many people have ignored the importance of the upcoming recall election in Wisconsin, in which Democrats’ unions in particular, are seeking to recall Scott Walker as Governor.  Walker was elected Governor in the Republican landslide of 2010, and he became a figure of some importance because Wisconsin, which was carried by the President in 2008, was part of the dramatic slide toward the GOP in 2010, and it is now likely to be an important swing state in 2012.  The recall election is scheduled for June 5.  Some digression into the history of all of this is important.

Walker became a figure of importance in a controversy due to the Wisconsin Budget Repair bill, which he proposed.  The bill was passed by the Wisconsin legislature, but it never passed the state senate, and it drew attention because Walker was denied a sufficient quorum when a group of Democratic senators left the state and hid out in Illinois.  Walker’s proposed Budget Repair Bill in February of 2011 came with his claim that it would save the state an estimated $30 million or more in that fiscal year and $300 million over the next two years.  The bill, however, would require additional contributions by state and local government workers to their healthcare plans and pensions, amounting to roughly an 8% decrease in the average government workers take home pay.  The bill also would have eliminated most government workers collective bargaining rights except for wages. Unions would be unable to seek pay increases for government workers above the rate of inflation unless approved by a voter referendum.  Under the bill, unions would have to win yearly votes to continue representing government workers and could no longer have dues automatically deducted from government workers paychecks.  Law enforcement personnel and firefighters would be exempt from the bargaining changes.

According to the Milwaukee Sentinel and The Wall Street Journal, all of this was necessary to avoid the layoffs of thousands of state employees, and its provisions should have surprised no one.  Union and Democratic leaders quickly criticized the bill as a power grab.  In a media interview one week later Walker said he was not trying to break the unions and noted that Wisconsin government employees would retain the protections guaranteed by the civil service laws.  He said that asking employees to pay half, just half, the national average for healthcare benefits was a modest request.  Even though leaders of two of the largest unions said publically they were willing to accept the financial concessions in the bill, but would not agree to the loss of collective bargaining rights, all 14 of the Democratic state senators departed the state and hid out in Illinois to deprive Walker of a quorum.

In the first half of 2011, Governor Walker raised more than $2.5 million for an upcoming recall election.  He raised $5.1 million in the second half of 2011 to battle the recall, about half of it from out of state, illustrating the national significance that both political parties see in this recall fight.  The Democrats and the unions have obtained more than a million signatures to put this on the ballot and hence, on June 5 the rubber hits the road, and the election will be held.  Polls vary on the likely outcome, and the outcome obviously depends on who will be the Democrats’ opposition candidate.  Could it be a rematch against the Mayor of Milwaukee, or could it be even a different candidate, lesser known but more strident.  Wisconsin is turning out to be a very important state because Democratic Senator Herb Kohl is retiring and his Senate seat is up for grabs.

The Walker recall, on top of the presidential election, is no mere exercise in payback.  As stated by online columnist Charles Lane,

For public‑sector unions, the Walker recall is no mere exercise in payback.  The unions, upon which Democrats depend heavily for funding and foot soldiers, say Walker must be ousted and his reforms reversed for the sake of the middle class.  Progressive values–even democracy itself–are in mortal danger.”  Actually, the opposite is true.  The threat to such progressive goals of majority rule, transparent government, a vibrant public sector and equality comes from public‑sector unionism.

Collective bargaining in the public sector is inherently contrary to majority rule.  It transfers basic public‑policy decisions, such as pay and working conditions that taxpayers will offer those who work for them, out of the public square and behind closed doors.  Wisconsin has always had a robust “open meetings” law covering a wide range of government gatherings, except collective bargaining with municipal or state employees.

Wisconsin is not the only state that faces this issue.  New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg complained about the so‑called “rubber room” where, until a couple of years ago, hundreds of union teachers languished, on full pay, while awaiting disciplinary hearings.  Hopefully it will dawn on Americans, not just Wisconsinites, even those who do not like Governor Walker’s policies, that it would be a disaster to cut short his term in office at the behest of a special interest group.  That would confirm Wisconsin’s public‑sector unions as the state’s de facto rulers.  The implications are, of course, substantial for any states in which public-sector unions (whose members now generally enjoy benefits far in excess of private sector workers) can negotiate behind closed doors for budget-busting benefits, the cost of which ultimately fall to the taxpayers. This has created an obvious limitation on the democracy we so enjoy.

Since the middle of the 20th century, organized labor in America has undergone two transformations with major implications for the nation’s politics. The first is the dramatic decline in overall union membership. In 1955, organized labor represented one-third of the non-agricultural work force; today, it represents just 12.3%. The second transformation, however, is even more significant: the change in the composition of the unionized work force.

As private-sector unions have withered, public-sector unions have grown dramatically. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, in 2009, for the first time ever, more public-sector employees (7.9 million) than private-sector employees (7.4 million) belonged to unions. Today, unionized workers are more likely to be teachers, librarians, trash collectors, policemen, or firefighters than they are to be carpenters, electricians, plumbers, autoworkers, or coal miners.

Professor Stephen Bainbridge in the Journal of Law, Politics, and Culture stated:

A core problem with public sector unionism is that it creates a uniquely powerful interest group. In theory, bureaucrats are supposed to work for, and be accountable to, the elected representatives of the people. But suppose those bureaucrats organize into large, well-funded, powerful unions that can tip election results. With very few and very unique exceptions, no workplace in which the employees elect the supervisors functions well for long. Yet, research by Terry Moe (22 J.L. Econ. & Org. 1) into the electoral power of teachers’ unions finds just such an outcome:

The first study … provides evidence that teachers, acting through their unions, are quite successful at getting their favored candidates elected to local school boards. When a candidate is supported by the unions, her probability of winning increases dramatically, so much so that the impact of union support appears to be roughly the same as the impact of incumbency. In terms of total impact, union influence may be even greater than this suggests, because union victories literally produce incumbents—and the power of incumbency then works for union candidates to boost their probability of victory still further in future elections.

The second study … shows that public bureaucrats’ turnout advantage over other citizens is much greater than the existing literature would lead us to expect. It also offers persuasive new grounds for believing that their high turnout is indeed motivated by occupational self-interest—and more generally, that they are actively and purposely engaged in an electoral effort to control their own superiors.

Moe concludes:

The prevailing theories treat bureaucrats as mere subordinates, controlled from above by political authorities. But the control relationship can run both ways, and not just because bureaucrats have expertise and other sources of private information. In a democratic system the authorities are elected, and this gives bureaucrats an opportunity to exercise electoral power in determining who will occupy positions of authority and what choices they will make in office. It would be odd indeed if public bureaucrats and their unions did not invest in this kind of reverse control—and there is ample evidence that they do.

We appreciate that in any democracy elected officials must be responsive to those who vote for them if they are to remain in office. But that is a far cry from having elected officials negotiate (behind closed doors) wages, pensions and other benefits with those whose support they depend upon to stay in office.  In effect, public sector unionism thus means that representatives of the union will often be on both sides of the collective bargaining table. On the one side, the union leaders de jure. On the other side, the bought and paid for politicians. No wonder public sector union wages and benefits are breaking the back of state budgets. They are bargaining with themselves rather than with an arms’-length opponent.

Make no mistake about it, the Walker recall election, however its outcome, will tell us about the nature of the Democratic left.  More and more it whiffs of European Socialism than it does of a free enterprise system.

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The Relationship Between Limited Government and Economic Growth: Obama Really Doesn’t Get It.

April 29, 2012

  We do not know who will be the next President of the United States.  As we opined last week, Republican nominee-apparent Mitt Romney is not likely to win if he doesn’t soon articulate an inspiring message or vision.  President Obama, on the other hand, very well may win re-election with his strategy of pitting [...]

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Let The Games Begin

April 22, 2012

 In London this summer we will really hear the cry “let the games begin,” but they will, of course, be referring to the 2012 summer Olympics.  What we refer to in this essay is the American presidential election.  The game has now begun in earnest.  Mitt Romney who, for six years has fought through more [...]

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Imagineering Education: a Mickey Mouse Idea That Works.

April 15, 2012

  We’ll begin this week’s essay with a nod to Walt Disney, who coined the term imagineer seventy years ago when he founded WDI (Walt Disney Imagineering), the design and development arm of the Disney Company. This essay, however, will not deal with anything as entertaining or enjoyable as Disneyland. Quite the contrary, it is [...]

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Federal Baseline Budgeting: A Scam By Any Other Name

April 8, 2012

  Okay, “scam” might be a little strong.  We’ll just call it a 40-year-old government budgeting procedure that seems to have little redeeming value except for those politicians whose careers depend on grossly misleading the American public. Perhaps that’s why it has endured so long.  When the President (not just this President; any President) tells [...]

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The Commerce Clause and the Supreme Court: Will Federalism Survive?

April 1, 2012

 Our focus in these weekly essays has been largely related to economic issues and political matters.  We divert this week to examine what might well be the most important issue facing the country, the health care case recently argued in front of the Supreme Court, and its broader ramifications regarding our founding document, the Constitution [...]

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The Constitution of the United States: Is There A Role for Religion in Elections?

March 25, 2012

  One cannot begin to discuss the subject of religion in public life without first studying the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.  It begins with the phrase “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion . . .” the so-called Establishment Clause.             The noted civil liberties historian Tom Head, writing in [...]

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The Economy: The Bright and the Blight

March 18, 2012

  We Americans like to think of the economy as a single organic reality, as a big picture that is immediately discernable on its surface, something that is simply good, or not so good, something that produces a sense of well-being or something that produces a sense of foreboding.  Well, the economy is not really [...]

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Who Gets More from the Federal Government, The Rich or the Poor?

March 11, 2012

So long as we use the Internal Revenue Code to influence behavior we have to acknowledge that social policy will dictate the result.  If we can’t get to a flat tax on the top line (e.g. gross income) unreduced by the deductions we hold so near and dear, then the true beneficiaries will be the [...]

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